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After a season of extraordinary Med heat, many summer travelers are choosing the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland, and Denmark.
Since Lori Zaino’s husband’s grandparents bought the Alicante vacation flat in the 1970s, it has remained in their family. Her husband took his first steps there as a baby, and he and Zaino have spent their summer vacations there practically every year for 16 years, now with a kid. Their families change each year, but each Mediterranean summer vacation has provided sun, sand, and beach time.
Prior to this year. Madrid, Seville, and Rome saw 46C and 47C heat waves over the mid-July vacation. Zaino reports 39C was reached in Alicante, although humidity made it seem hotter. Red-alert weather warning. Water loss tipped palm trees.
After 16 years in Madrid, Zaino is accustomed to heat. “We close the shutters noon, remain inside, and nap. Zaino stated this summer was unlike any other. “No sleep at night. Midday is unbearable—you can’t go outdoors. You can’t leave the home till 16:00 or 17:00.
“It wasn’t that relaxing. We felt imprisoned.”
Research consistently reveals that the combustion of fossil fuels makes climatic catastrophes like Spain’s July heatwave several times more frequent and violent.
However, human-caused carbon emissions in the Mediterranean this summer have had other effects.
Greek wildfires burnt almost 54,000 hectares in July 2023, about five times the annual average, forcing the greatest evacuations in the country’s history. Other flames ravaged Tenerife, Girona, Sarzedas, Portugal, Sardinia, and Sicily in August. Other troubling signals of increasing temperatures included dryness in Portugal, hundreds of jellyfish on French Riviera beaches, and a spike in mosquito-borne diseases like dengue due to higher temperatures and floods reducing insect die-off.
Scientists agree that southern Europe is experiencing and will continue to experience more heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, coastal floods, stronger wind storms, and more intense rainfall due to the changing climate. Much of it falls during summer, the Mediterranean’s peak tourism season.
These incidents go beyond inconvenience. Can kill. The July 2023 heatwave in Spain killed approximately 1,000 people in eight days. The overall human cost of Europe’s summer 2023 heatwaves is unknown. Summer 2022, which was also hot, claimed almost 60,000 lives.
Against this context, the Mediterranean summer holiday’s loss may seem little, but it is a heartbreaking reminder of how climate change is changing our daily and economic reality.
The Mediterranean has drawn summer vacationers for millennia. In ancient Roman times, wealthy people went to Baiae, a vacation town on the Bay of Naples, or to Greek islands (Antony and Cleopatra appeared to love Samos). Every summer, millions of visitors visit Greece, Spain, and Italy to lounge on sunny beaches.
That might change. According to the European Travel Commission (ETC), Mediterranean countries are Europeans’ top travel destinations for June to November 2023. Still, European visitors interested in Mediterranean nations are down 10% from last year. The “shoulder season” of October and November is attracting 5% more tourists than in 2022.
Eduardo Santander, ETC executive director, said “economic factors are having a significant impact” but “unease about weather conditions is also influencing where Europeans choose to go on holiday”. From June to November 2023, roughly 8% of European travelers cited “extreme weather events” as their main worry, according to the ETC.
Monthly data from certain nations shows distinct changes. Italy’s office of statistics told BBC Travel that July 2019 had 9,255,000 international arrivals, a record. By July 2022, numbers were virtually back to pre-Covid levels with 9,064,000 visits. But by July 2023, it had dropped to 8,748,000.
Nearly a quarter of ETC respondents indicated anxiety about rising travel expenses, which may be contributing to consumers tightening their budgets. International visitor visits were 84% of pre-pandemic levels in July 2023, which might lead to unrest. However, studies and anecdotal suggest that climate change may be causing some visitors to reschedule their Mediterranean vacation dates or cancel them.
Customers know how climate change is influencing European weather and how it may effect their vacation.
Data reveals that international visitors in Italy increased 43% from January to April 2023 compared to 2022.
Consumers know how climate change is influencing European weather and how it may effect their vacation. Santander stated this is affecting European tourism.
Meanwhile, other locations prosper. Santander reports that more summer travelers are choosing warmer places including the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Ireland, and Denmark. Malcolm Bell, executive chair of Visit Cornwall, said German, Italian, and Dutch tourists have increased in Cornwall, known for its beaches and ocean vistas. “We believe it’s partly driven by the cooler climate, [which] makes walking and cycling delightful rather than a sweat,” stated.
According to Visit Britain, Gulf Cooperation Council visitors named the UK’s climate the top reason for visiting, especially to escape the summer heat, while Indian tourists ranked it third. Tourists from additional places may find Britain a solid summer bet as the globe warms up. No location will be “safe” from climate effects; Cornwall will witness bigger storms, quicker coastal erosion, more floods, heatwaves, and droughts, and a rapid sea level rise that may submerge most of the coastline.
These tendencies should persist or worsen in the next years. “Conditions in the summer in the Mediterranean are predicted to become worse,” said Wageningen University associate professor of environmental systems analysis Bas Amelung, who studies climate change and tourism. “It’s still difficult to predict exactly what it will mean, but I think we have to prepare for the worst.”
The Mediterranean summer is expected to worsen. It’s hard to forecast, but we should prepare for the worst.
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre concluded that Europe’s southern coastal areas would lose 10% more summer visitors, especially under a 3C or 4C warming scenario, than in 2019. Many tourists will switch seasons, but not all. The analysis states that the Greek Ionian islands would still lose 9% of visitors yearly. West Wales tourism would climb 16% annually under the same climatic scenario.
The authors found that summer tourist conditions in southern European countries are deteriorating, possibly rendering many sites unfit for tourism.
The analysis underlines that if the world keeps its 1.5C global temperature increase commitment by the end of the century, the prognosis is much brighter. The greatest fall is in Cyprus, where roughly 2% fewer visitors than in 2019 are expected. This best-case scenario is becoming less plausible, but it’s still possible with timely action.
According to Amelung, many Mediterranean locations are unaware of or unwilling to accept this fact. He’s interviewed hundreds of southern European tourist workers. “Some of them are even doubtful, still, whether climate change is real,” stated. “Some weren’t particularly worried. Other concerns usually take precedence.” He believes that since so much of the tourist sector relies on small firms, the emphasis is on survival from year to year rather than long-term trends.
Italy’s national tourist office released a press statement on July 21, 2023, after the deadliest heat wave of the season. Under the title, “No climate emergency, temperatures in the seasonal norm,” We have sun, beautiful weather, and excellent hospitality. “The numbers show Italy is becoming more appealing,” tourism minister Daniela Santanchè said. “I realise that we are for this reason a very formidable competitor that leads foreign newspapers to exasperate the narrative about us, but the high temperatures are physiological in this season and do not compromise in any way our tourist offer.”
While global emissions reduction efforts continue, more attention is being given to the reality that climate change is here and practically every business must adapt. The tourist industry follows suit. Amelung suggested preparing for climate change by developing new hotels with greater insulation and air conditioning rather than retrofitting them in five or ten years.
Mediterranean resorts may also emphasize their warmer “shoulder seasons” in spring or October. (He also notes that if school timetables grow more flexible, families will be able to travel more outside the summer, whereas if nothing changes, southern Europe’s tourism would suffer more.)
Zaino thinks these reforms might assist Spain. Her in-laws returned to Alicante in early October, she recalls. It was perfect—32C, sunny, “the weather you’re supposed to have in summer”. Her family wants to arrange a summer vacation next year. They finally plan to change. They’re considering the Canary Islands for a cooler yet warm trip. “It’s a whole different kind of trip,” remarked. I hope they like it more.
